Santa

Was the North 'Pole Ice-Free' in 2008?

Didn't some goober at NSIDC by the name of Mark Serreze.. a Senior Research Scientist, Associate Research Professor, CIRES Fellow, PhD, University of Colorado at Boulder, make some prediction that the North Pole would be ice-free in 2008? As I recall, the mainstream media was splashing the story all over the place earlier last year, but I haven't heard a peep since. What's the scoop?

Public Comments

1. No. Not yet.
2. i dont know about the north pole but thers no shortage of ice here where i live
3. I believe the prediction was that is was a 50% chance to be ice free. Naturally, you left out that part. Of course you could point out that it is a worthless prediction. The media is part of the problem here.
4. No, of course not. Many of the true believers predicted that the Arctic would be ice free, that the permafrost would thaw and this would cause an irreversible feedback effect that would cause global temperatures to skyrocket. And like all of their predictions to date, this one didn't come true either.
5. Yes, the North pole didn't go "ice-free". We all should be glad that the prediction didn't come true because that could be really a disaster for the planet. The point of the matter is not about someone's prediction went way-off or cheering that we are still here. I am disappointed that people so focus on others wrong predictions and their "supposedly" evil intention. More of our brain cells should be spent on the positive matter.
6. No it was not!
7. Seems I recall reading that the artic actually froze earlier this year than usual.
8. Absolutely not. More AGW misinformation.
9. Well, it wasn't just Mark Serreze, and no one over said the North Pole WOULD be ice free in 2008. It was almost the entire scientific community; and, what was predicted was that the area in the immediate vicinity of the North Pole COULD be ice free this summer. This is because the Arctic ice flows. The ice now directly over the North Pole is thin annual ice which usually does melt during the summer months. I think that "they" have placed the odds on the North Pole being ice free last summer at 50/50. The prediction did not come true, and some ice did remain at the North Pole. The National Science Foundation places cameras at the North Pole every year to monitor what is occurring. Here is one of the last images from camera 1: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/npole/2008/images/noaa1-2008-0813-144429.jpg And the last images from Camera 2: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/latest/noaa2.jpg [1]
10. Beren you are quite right, I remember the last time this was asked the original quote was along the lines of him saying near the end of an interview that he had a bet with a fellow scientist that it might be ice free and then he mentioned the 50% chance, the media did indeed run the ice free part and left out the of the off the cuff comments. I posted the link to the full original story last time, I'm sure it can still be found with google if anyone cares.